Adjust growth rate by average rate over window

4 files changed, 56 insertions, 32 deletions

diff --git a/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ClusterTimeseries.java b/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ClusterTimeseries.java
index 75270f8afc6..f8b6d59f20f 100644
--- a/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ClusterTimeseries.java
+++ b/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ClusterTimeseries.java
@@ -9,6 +9,8 @@ import java.time.Instant;
 import java.util.ArrayList;
 import java.util.Collections;
 import java.util.List;
+import java.util.Optional;
+import java.util.OptionalDouble;
 
 /**
  * A list of metric snapshots from a cluster, sorted by increasing time (newest last).
@@ -45,14 +47,16 @@ public class ClusterTimeseries {
         return new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, list);
     }
 
-    /** The max query growth rate we can predict from this time-series as a fraction of the current traffic per minute */
-    public double maxQueryGrowthRate() {
+    /**
+     * The max query growth rate we can predict from this time-series as a fraction of the average traffic in the window
+     */
+    public double maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration window, Clock clock) {
         if (cachedMaxQueryGrowthRate != null)
             return cachedMaxQueryGrowthRate;
-        return cachedMaxQueryGrowthRate = computeMaxQueryGrowthRate();
+        return cachedMaxQueryGrowthRate = computeMaxQueryGrowthRate(window, clock);
     }
 
-    private double computeMaxQueryGrowthRate() {
+    private double computeMaxQueryGrowthRate(Duration window, Clock clock) {
         if (snapshots.isEmpty()) return 0.1;
 
         // Find the period having the highest growth rate, where total growth exceeds 30% increase
@@ -82,8 +86,9 @@ public class ClusterTimeseries {
             else
                 return 0.0; //       ... because load is stable
         }
-        if (currentQueryRate() == 0) return 0.1; // Growth not expressible as a fraction of the current rate
-        return maxGrowthRate / currentQueryRate();
+        OptionalDouble queryRate = queryRate(window, clock);
+        if (queryRate.orElse(0) == 0) return 0.1; // Growth not expressible as a fraction of the current rate
+        return maxGrowthRate / queryRate.getAsDouble();
     }
 
     /**
@@ -94,21 +99,38 @@ public class ClusterTimeseries {
         if (snapshots.isEmpty()) return 0.5;
         var max = snapshots.stream().mapToDouble(ClusterMetricSnapshot::queryRate).max().getAsDouble();
         if (max == 0) return 1.0;
-        Instant oldest = clock.instant().minus(window);
-        var average = snapshots.stream()
-                               .filter(snapshot -> snapshot.at().isAfter(oldest))
-                               .mapToDouble(snapshot -> snapshot.queryRate())
-                               .average();
+        var average = queryRateTemp(window, clock);
         if (average.isEmpty()) return 0.5; // No measurements in the relevant time period
         return average.getAsDouble() / max;
     }
 
-    public double currentQueryRate() {
-        return queryRateAt(snapshots.size() - 1);
+    /** Returns the average query rate in the given window, or empty if there are no measurements in it */
+    public OptionalDouble queryRateTemp(Duration window, Clock clock) {
+        Instant oldest = clock.instant().minus(window);
+        return snapshots.stream()
+                        .filter(snapshot -> snapshot.at().isAfter(oldest))
+                        .mapToDouble(snapshot -> snapshot.queryRate())
+                        .average();
+    }
+
+    /** Returns the average query rate in the given window, or empty if there are no measurements in it */
+    public OptionalDouble queryRate(Duration window, Clock clock) {
+        if (1==1) return snapshots.isEmpty() ? OptionalDouble.empty() : OptionalDouble.of(queryRateAt(snapshots.size() - 1)); // TODO
+        Instant oldest = clock.instant().minus(window);
+        return snapshots.stream()
+                        .filter(snapshot -> snapshot.at().isAfter(oldest))
+                        .mapToDouble(snapshot -> snapshot.queryRate())
+                        .average();
     }
 
-    public double currentWriteRate() {
-        return writeRateAt(snapshots.size() - 1);
+    /** Returns the average query rate in the given window, or empty if there are no measurements in it */
+    public OptionalDouble writeRate(Duration window, Clock clock) {
+        if (1==1) return snapshots.isEmpty() ? OptionalDouble.empty() : OptionalDouble.of(writeRateAt(snapshots.size() - 1)); // TODO
+        Instant oldest = clock.instant().minus(window);
+        return snapshots.stream()
+                        .filter(snapshot -> snapshot.at().isAfter(oldest))
+                        .mapToDouble(snapshot -> snapshot.queryRate())
+                        .average();
     }
 
     private double queryRateAt(int index) {
diff --git a/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ResourceTarget.java b/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ResourceTarget.java
index d7dd0fc3197..9f6a4fc77cd 100644
--- a/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ResourceTarget.java
+++ b/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ResourceTarget.java
@@ -5,6 +5,7 @@ import com.yahoo.vespa.hosted.provision.applications.Application;
 
 import java.time.Clock;
 import java.time.Duration;
+import java.util.OptionalDouble;
 
 /**
  * A resource target to hit for the allocation optimizer.
@@ -78,10 +79,10 @@ public class ResourceTarget {
                                       ClusterTimeseries clusterTimeseries,
                                       Application application,
                                       Clock clock) {
-        double queryCpuFraction = queryCpuFraction(clusterTimeseries);
+        double queryCpuFraction = queryCpuFraction(clusterTimeseries, scalingDuration, clock);
 
         // What's needed to have headroom for growth during scale-up as a fraction of current resources?
-        double maxGrowthRate = clusterTimeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(); // in fraction per minute of the current traffic
+        double maxGrowthRate = clusterTimeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(scalingDuration, clock); // in fraction per minute of the current traffic
         double growthRateHeadroom = 1 + maxGrowthRate * scalingDuration.toMinutes();
         // Cap headroom at 10% above the historical observed peak
         double fractionOfMax = clusterTimeseries.queryFractionOfMax(scalingDuration, clock);
@@ -106,11 +107,11 @@ public class ResourceTarget {
                (1 - queryCpuFraction) * idealWriteCpuLoad();
     }
     
-    private static double queryCpuFraction(ClusterTimeseries clusterTimeseries) {
-        double queryRate = clusterTimeseries.currentQueryRate();
-        double writeRate = clusterTimeseries.currentWriteRate();
-        if (queryRate == 0 && writeRate == 0) return queryCpuFraction(0.5);
-        return queryCpuFraction(queryRate / (queryRate + writeRate));
+    private static double queryCpuFraction(ClusterTimeseries clusterTimeseries, Duration scalingDuration, Clock clock) {
+        OptionalDouble queryRate = clusterTimeseries.queryRate(scalingDuration, clock);
+        OptionalDouble writeRate = clusterTimeseries.writeRate(scalingDuration, clock);
+        if (queryRate.orElse(0) == 0 && writeRate.orElse(0) == 0) return queryCpuFraction(0.5);
+        return queryCpuFraction(queryRate.orElse(0) / (queryRate.orElse(0) + writeRate.orElse(0)));
     }
 
     private static double queryCpuFraction(double queryFraction) {
diff --git a/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/restapi/ApplicationSerializer.java b/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/restapi/ApplicationSerializer.java
index 90b898640cf..8d8d7e01049 100644
--- a/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/restapi/ApplicationSerializer.java
+++ b/node-repository/src/main/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/restapi/ApplicationSerializer.java
@@ -76,7 +76,7 @@ public class ApplicationSerializer {
         scalingEventsToSlime(cluster.scalingEvents(), clusterObject.setArray("scalingEvents"));
         clusterObject.setString("autoscalingStatus", cluster.autoscalingStatus());
         clusterObject.setLong("scalingDuration", scalingDuration.toMillis());
-        clusterObject.setDouble("maxQueryGrowthRate", clusterTimeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate());
+        clusterObject.setDouble("maxQueryGrowthRate", clusterTimeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(scalingDuration, metricsDb.clock()));
         clusterObject.setDouble("currentQueryFractionOfMax", clusterTimeseries.queryFractionOfMax(scalingDuration, metricsDb.clock()));
     }
 
diff --git a/node-repository/src/test/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ClusterTimeseriesTest.java b/node-repository/src/test/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ClusterTimeseriesTest.java
index 9a08e7b3279..988edb71684 100644
--- a/node-repository/src/test/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ClusterTimeseriesTest.java
+++ b/node-repository/src/test/java/com/yahoo/vespa/hosted/provision/autoscale/ClusterTimeseriesTest.java
@@ -22,22 +22,23 @@ public class ClusterTimeseriesTest {
 
     @Test
     public void test_empty() {
+        ManualClock clock = new ManualClock();
         var timeseries = new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, List.of());
-        assertEquals(0.1, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(), delta);
+        assertEquals(0.1, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration.ofMinutes(5), clock), delta);
     }
 
     @Test
     public void test_constant_rate_short() {
         var clock = new ManualClock();
         var timeseries = new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, queryRate(10, clock, t -> 50.0));
-        assertEquals(0.1, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(), delta);
+        assertEquals(0.1, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration.ofMinutes(5), clock), delta);
     }
 
     @Test
     public void test_constant_rate_long() {
         var clock = new ManualClock();
         var timeseries = new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, queryRate(10000, clock, t -> 50.0));
-        assertEquals(0.0, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(), delta);
+        assertEquals(0.0, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration.ofMinutes(5), clock), delta);
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -47,7 +48,7 @@ public class ClusterTimeseriesTest {
         snapshots.addAll(queryRate(1000, clock, t ->  50.0));
         snapshots.addAll(queryRate(10, clock, t -> 400.0));
         snapshots.addAll(queryRate(1000, clock, t ->  50.0));
-        assertEquals((400-50)/5.0/50.0, new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, snapshots).maxQueryGrowthRate(), delta);
+        assertEquals((400-50)/5.0/50.0, new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, snapshots).maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration.ofMinutes(5), clock), delta);
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -61,7 +62,7 @@ public class ClusterTimeseriesTest {
         snapshots.addAll(queryRate(1000, clock, t ->  50.0));
         snapshots.addAll(queryRate(10, clock, t -> 800.0));
         snapshots.addAll(queryRate(1000, clock, t ->  50.0));
-        assertEquals((800-50)/5.0/50.0, new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, snapshots).maxQueryGrowthRate(), delta);
+        assertEquals((800-50)/5.0/50.0, new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, snapshots).maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration.ofMinutes(5), clock), delta);
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -70,7 +71,7 @@ public class ClusterTimeseriesTest {
         var snapshots = new ArrayList<ClusterMetricSnapshot>();
         snapshots.addAll(queryRate(100, clock, t ->  (double)t));
         snapshots.addAll(queryRate(100, clock, t -> 100.0 - t));
-        assertEquals(1/5.0, new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, snapshots).maxQueryGrowthRate(), delta);
+        assertEquals(1/5.0, new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, snapshots).maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration.ofMinutes(1), clock), delta);
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -78,7 +79,7 @@ public class ClusterTimeseriesTest {
         var clock = new ManualClock();
         var timeseries = new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, queryRate(10000, clock,
                                                              t -> 10.0 + 100.0 * Math.sin(t)));
-        assertEquals(0.26, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(), delta);
+        assertEquals(0.26, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration.ofMinutes(5), clock), delta);
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -86,7 +87,7 @@ public class ClusterTimeseriesTest {
         var clock = new ManualClock();
         var timeseries = new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, queryRate(10000, clock,
                                                                            t -> 1000.0 + 10.0 * Math.sin(t)));
-        assertEquals(0.0, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(), delta);
+        assertEquals(0.0, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration.ofMinutes(5), clock), delta);
     }
 
     @Test
@@ -94,7 +95,7 @@ public class ClusterTimeseriesTest {
         var clock = new ManualClock();
         var timeseries = new ClusterTimeseries(cluster, queryRate(10000, clock,
                                                              t -> 10.0 + 100.0 * Math.sin(t) + 80.0 * Math.sin(10 * t)) );
-        assertEquals(1.765, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(), delta);
+        assertEquals(1.765, timeseries.maxQueryGrowthRate(Duration.ofMinutes(5), clock), delta);
     }
 
     private List<ClusterMetricSnapshot> queryRate(int count, ManualClock clock, IntFunction<Double> rate) {